Pro-Israel PAC notches striking electoral victories with Bush, Bowman defeats

After losing reelection in her Democratic primary, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) did not hesitate to direct supporters to the alleged culprit.

“AIPAC, I’m coming to tear your kingdom down,” a defiant Bush said to cheers at her election night event on Tuesday, referencing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, whose super PAC spent at least $8.6 million to defeat Bush, helping make the race the second-most expensive House primary of the year.

Her loss came weeks after the super PAC, United Democracy Project, helped unseat Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in the No. 1 priciest primary.

While the pro-Israel group targeted both incumbents for their records and rhetoric related to Israel, the vast majority of its advertising focused on other issues, such as the lawmakers’ votes against President Joe Biden’s 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.

The group has had a mixed record in primaries throughout the year, but the two incumbent losses — both members of the liberal “Squad” — are striking political successes at a time when opinions of the war in Gaza are dividing the U.S. electorate.

“Being anti-Israel is bad politics,” said Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for the United Democracy Project. “That’s been proven over and over. … I think [Bush’s] race shows, like Bowman too, that when you get disconnected from your district and adopt a fringe, anti-Israel, out-of-the-mainstream agenda, you lose support.”

Bowman and Bush have been both been outspoken critics of Israel, especially over its handling of the war in Gaza after the Hamas attack last year. Bush was among the first House members to call for a cease-fire, and she has called on the United States to end “support for Israeli military occupation and apartheid.”

With the primary season winding down, United Democracy Project could still get involved in additional races. It has not commented on specific plans, but in a statement on Bush’s loss Tuesday night, it vowed to “continue our efforts to support leaders working to strengthen the U.S.-Israel alliance while countering detractors in either political party.”

The next Squad member facing a primary challenge, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), is on the ballot Tuesday and faces a primary challenger, Don Samuels, who nearly beat her in 2022. But United Democracy Project has stayed out of the race as Omar has built a large fundraising advantage and campaigned alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who visited the state last week.

Samuels said in a statement that he believes national groups “are missing an opportunity once again to help unseat” Omar.

Amid the intense primary battles, liberal groups have been working to stigmatize AIPAC inside the Democratic Party.

“AIPAC will soon become our generation’s [National Rifle Association] — moving further and further from a veneer of bipartisanship to unconditionally support right-wing extremism until they become a right-wing pariah rejected by the whole of the Democratic Party,” Justice Democrats executive director Alexandra Rojas said in a statement after Bush’s loss.

Justice Democrats spent over $2 million to reelect Bush. She was the first-ever candidate the group rallied behind, in a 2018 challenge to veteran Rep. William Lacy Clay (D-Mo.). That bid was unsuccessful, but Bush unseated Clay in a second attempt two years later.

AIPAC’s super PAC spent at least$8.6 million helping St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell defeat Bush in this year’s race, mostly airing ads that attacked Bush as a do-nothing lawmaker who opposed key parts of Biden’s agenda. One spot featured a St. Louis construction worker bashing Bush for voting against the infrastructure law, which she said she opposed because it was not paired with a broader social spending package.

The ads from Bush’s side hit back at Bell as a Trojan horse for Republican interests, including some of AIPAC’s top donors.

As in Bowman’s race, Israel hardly came up on the airwaves.

“It’s an issue that was an issue, but I wouldn’t say that it was theissue or a leading issue,” Bell spokesperson Anjan Mukherjee said. “What folks in the district repeatedly communicated to Wesley was [they wanted] somebody who would pay more attention to what’s going on at home in the district.”

While both Bowman and Bush were critics of Israel, there were key differences between the primaries. Notably, Bell ran as more of a progressive than did Bowman’s opponent, George Latimer, a longtime politician from suburban New York.

“Progressives should actually make progress,” Bell said in his victory speech.

The issue of abortion also played a bigger role in Missouri than in New York. Bush highlighted how she had an abortion after being raped as a teenager; Bell talked up how he has declined to prosecute abortion cases in his current job.

House Democratic leaders endorsed Bowman and Bush, as they typically do for incumbents in primaries. Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) visited St. Louis in the race’s final days to appear alongside Bush.

The White House declined to comment Wednesday about AIPAC’s targeting of Bush. But asked about Bush’s message to AIPAC that she is “coming to tear your kingdom down,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that kind of rhetoric is “inflammatory and divisive and incredibly unhelpful.”

It is rare for incumbents to lose, and the only other House member who lost this cycle for reasons unrelated to changed district lines was Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.). He ran afoul of pro-Israel groups — including AIPAC — but also faced broader headwinds inside his party.

United Democracy Project has raised $56.9 million this election cycle and spent $48.2 million, according to Federal Election Commission records through June. Its biggest donors include WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum ($5 million) and investment manager Jonathon Jacobson ($2.5 million).

The group has received large checks from donors who give to Republican causes, such as Koum, and to Democratic causes, such as Hollywood media mogul Haim Saban.

The group’s high profile in elections is a major shiftfrom just two election cycles ago, when AIPAC, which has been around for decades, did not directly engage in elections and focused on lobbying. It launched the super PAC ahead of the 2022 election and mostly played in open races, but helped defeat Rep. Andy Levin in his primary matchup against fellow Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens.

Going into this election cycle, AIPAC reportedly endeavored to spend $100 million on politics, with a focus on the Squad members who have been most critical of Israel’s military action in Gaza. Nearly two dozen progressive groups formed a “Reject AIPAC” coalition in March, calling on candidates to decline the group’s support.

United Democracy Project took a pass on spending against the first Squad member in a competitive primary for reelection, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), after its all-in efforts to beat her in 2022 came up short.

The super PAC took an early loss in the primary season when it dumped millions into a nonpartisan March primary for an open House seat in California, seeking to block state Sen. Dave Min from advancing even though there appeared to be little daylight between him and his main Democratic rival, Joanna Weiss, on Israel. Min outpaced Weiss by seven percentage points to move on to the general election.

AIPAC had a better outcome in May in a Democratic primary for an open House seat in Maryland, spending millions to help nominate state Sen. Sarah Elfreth over Harry Dunn, a former police officerwho became nationally known for his role defending the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

United Democracy Project then played a major role in beating Susheela Jayapal — the sister of Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus — in a Democratic primary for an open House seat in Oregon, though its involvement was not public at the time. United Democracy Project was the top donor to an anti-Jayapal super PAC that did not have to disclose its donors until after the election.

United Democracy Project has also had success in Republican primaries this year, helping defeat a primary challenger to Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Tex.) and block former congressman John Hostettler of Indiana in his comeback bid.