Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term

If his first term in the White House is any indication, President-elect Donald Trump is likely to keep the Middle East high on his agenda.

During his first four years, Trump made history by selecting Saudi Arabia for his first foreign trip, attempted to broker a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians, strengthened the Jewish state’s regional integration, and significantly intensified pressure on Iran.

But the Middle East has changed significantly since he left office in 2021, and all regional actors are keenly watching how the new president will navigate these shifts.

“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X on Wednesday.

Gulf Arab states also welcomed the president-elect’s victory. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump, and the United Arab Emirates said: “the UAE and US are united by our enduring partnership based on shared ambitions for progress.”

Iran downplayed the significance of the election, saying there is “no significant difference” in who becomes president in the US, state media reported. Fatemeh Mohajerani, spokesperson for the government, was cited by Iranian media as saying that the “general policies of the US and Iran are unchanged” after Wednesday’s ballot.

Here’s how Trump’s election could affect key players in the Middle East:

Israel and the Palestinians

Ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and integrating Israel in the Middle East are likely to be at the top of the president-elect’s Middle East agenda, analysts said.

“Netanyahu will face a much tougher president than he is used to in the sense that I don’t think that Trump would tolerate the wars in the manner that they are happening,” said Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, adding that for Palestinians, it won’t make a major difference “because both administrations were totally biased” toward Israel.

“He will say: wrap it up; I don’t need this,” Pinkas said, adding that Trump will likely ask the Israeli prime minister to “announce victory” and then strike a deal through mediators.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has not specified how he would approach the Israel-Hamas war if reelected, or how his policies would differ from predecessor Joe Biden’s. In April, Trump did say that Israel needs to “finish what they started” and “get it over with fast,” noting that it was “losing the PR war” because of the images coming out of Gaza.

Trump, Pinkas said, “couldn’t care less about the Palestinian issue.” During his first term, he didn’t throw his weight behind the US’ longstanding support for an independent Palestinian state, saying he would like the solution “that both parties like.”

There is fear, said Barghouti, that Trump may allow Israel to annex parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which would spell “the end of the two-state solution.”

During his first term, Trump took several steps in Israel’s favor. In 2017, he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, upending decades of US policy and international consensus. He also recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria during the 1967 war.

But while Trump has often claimed to be most pro-Israel president in modern history, and even touted his close and personal relationship with Netanyahu, ties between the two leaders haven’t always been friendly.

In 2021, when both were out of office, Trump accused Netanyahu of betrayal when the Israeli leader congratulated Biden on winning the presidency in 2020.

Shortly after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel last year, Trump criticized Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence services for being unprepared, claiming the attack would not have occurred if he was president.

The accords, a set of agreements facilitated by Trump’s first administration that saw Israel normalize relations with four Arab nations, put prospects of an independent Palestinian state on the back burner, he said.

“When the war will be over, you’ll need a real restart in the Middle East,” and Trump will be the best person to bring about a “new Middle East,” Bismuth added.

Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who has worked closely with Netanyahu, said Trump’s election sends a message to Israel’s enemies in Iran.

The Israeli prime minister is also likely emboldened domestically, a day after he fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after months of clashes over domestic politics and Israel’s war efforts.

“He’ll calculate his next moves maybe different from he would if Harris was elected,” Shtrauchler said, adding that Trump’s unpredictability could mean that there will be more pressure on Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, potentially to refocus efforts at confronting Iran.

Iran

The next four years could be the Islamic Republic’s biggest test since its founding in 1979, with Tehran under Trump’s scrutiny that would most likely lead to a return of the “maximum pressure” campaign he imposed during his last presidency, which increased Iran’s isolation and crippled its economy, experts say.

Trump, who prides himself as a master dealmaker, failed to contain Tehran’s influence in the Middle East despite withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, reimposing sanctions on it, and even ordering the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the military commander who oversaw ties with Iran’s proxies in the region.

Since Trump left office in 2020, Iran has ramped up enrichment of uranium, increased its oil exports, stepped up support for regional militant groups, and has set a precedent by striking Israel in a direct attack twice.

But as Israel continues to degrade Tehran’s regional capabilities by striking its proxies, Iran finds itself losing its deterring powers as it faces economic turmoil and widespread internal discontent.

“The Islamic Republic appears as fragile as the threats against it are formidable,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, adding that 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has limited bandwidth to be dealing with all the crises happening at the same time.

As the Middle East teeters on the brink of a wider war, with Iran threatening to respond to an Israeli attack on its territory this month, there are concerns that Trump’s election may empower Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, something the Biden administration warned against.

“There is one scenario that Trump will tell Netanyahu to finish the job before he formally takes over, that means we might see a sharp escalation in tensions in November and December – Israel trying to push its advantage to weaken Iran and its Axis of Resistance (of militant groups) before Trump comes to office… then Trump comes in and takes credit on being a peacemaker,” Vaez said.

That could change if the Biden administration decides to “pull the plug” on Israel’s ability to escalate tensions in its final months in office, he said. The US has already laid the ground for that by sending a letter to Israel last month warning of repercussions if Israel does not improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

An important factor in Iran’s relationship with the next US president will be how Trump responds to recent US intelligence reports suggesting that Tehran attempted to assassinate him – allegations Iran dismissed as “unsubstantiated and malicious.”

But there must be a clear distinction between Trump and the Trump administration, said Vaez.

“Trump might be attracted by the allure of outwitting the Iranians at the negotiation table because that for him would be the ultimate test of his mastery in the art of the deal,” he said, adding that during his first term, he was attracted to the prospect of dealmaking with Iran.

“Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!” Trump wrote in a tweet in 2020.

Vaez noted that a revival of Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach might be paired with a policy of “maximum support” for Iranian people – a potential regime changing policy. This, he argued, would make it unlikely for the two countries to return to the negotiating table.

“I don’t think anyone in (Trump’s) national security team would share the objective of reaching a mutually beneficial deal with the Iranian regime,” he added.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states

Anticipating his possible comeback, Gulf Arab states continued to engage with Trump after he left office. Analysts say that could prove fruitful for them.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US under Trump’s first term flourished. He made history by choosing Riyadh for his first foreign visit as president in 2017 and stood by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the crisis surrounding the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi agents in 2018, when the Saudi heir faced global isolation.

“Gulf states place a lot of premium on the ability to work with a likeminded leader and conduct relations through interpersonal contact… It reflects the way they do business with other countries as well,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.

During his first term, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were engaged in wars in Yemen, and both countries’ ties with Iran were at their worst in decades.

But Gulf states have significantly modified their foreign policies since, opting to limit their military interventions and reach out to former foes like Iran, while diversifying alliances in an increasingly multipolar world amid skepticism over the US’ role in the Middle East.

“With Iran, there is a chance that Trump reverts to a maximum pressure stance and given the improved relations with Iran (Gulf states) could be subjected to greater pressure from the US to abide by the maximum pressure,” Alhasan said.

One challenge that emerging middle-powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could face under Trump will be managing their closer relationship with China. Over the past years, the oil-producing states have expanded trade and technology ties with China despite competition between Washington and Beijing.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE were invited to join the BRICS group of developing nations, and Saudi Arabia was granted dialogue partner status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – a China-led Asian security and economic bloc.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have used Chinese technology for key infrastructure, and despite pledges to limit Beijing’s influence on their emerging artificial intelligence sectors, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly relied on Chinese expertise.

“It’s a question of whether the Trump administration will exert greater pressure on Gulf states to decouple from China in certain areas, not to mention the tariff and trade wars that are likely to be exacerbated under a Trump administration which could have an impact on (Gulf) exports as well,” Alhasan said.

Trump also hopes to expand Israel’s integration in the Middle East but may face a challenge in Saudi Arabia’s refusal to normalize relations with the Jewish state until it sees a pathway for Palestinian statehood, which Israel has refused.

Qatar, one of the first nations to congratulate Trump, has become indispensable to US efforts in reaching a ceasefire in Gaza due to its relations with Hamas. Those relations may however prove to be a liability under Trump, according to Alhasan.

“They’re probably quite worried about what a Trump 2.0 might be,” he said.