Biden tied with Trump, Haley in potential November matchups but that changes if Trump is convicted: poll

President Biden and former President Donald Trump are basically all knotted up in a likely November election rematch, a new national poll suggests.

But an NPR/PBS NewsHour survey released on Wednesday indicates that the president’s advantage over Trump increases if the former president is convicted of a crime.

The poll also indicates that Biden is basically tied with former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a hypothetical general election showdown.

According to the poll, which was conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1 among registered voters nationwide, Biden would edge Trump 48%-47% if the presidential election were held today, with 5% unsure.

An average of all the most recent national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics – that asks a Biden-Trump horse race question indicates the former president with a slight 1.7 point edge over the incumbent in the White House.

But if Trump were convicted on criminal charges, the new Marist poll indicates Biden opening a six-point lead (51%-45%) over the former president. And Trump’s advantage with independent voters would shrink from eight points to two. Plus, nearly one in 10 Republicans say they would back Biden.

Trump made history last year as the first former or current president to be indicted for a crime. But his four indictments, including charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss to Biden, have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

Trump is the commanding frontrunner for the GOP nomination as he makes his third straight White House bid. He won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the first two contests in the Republican nominating calendar, by double digits. 

Haley is the last remaining major rival to Trump, but she faces a steep uphill climb to win the nomination.

The poll indicates Biden at 46% and Haley at 45% in a hypothetical November showdown.

The Marist poll surveyed 1,441 people, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percent.