Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC at $42,700 Amid $1B ETF Inflows and Texas Hash Rate Drop
In today’s financial landscape, the Bitcoin price prediction becomes increasingly significant as BTC trades at $42,700, marking a 0.75% decrease on Thursday. This trend occurs amidst a surge in market activity, highlighted by nearly $1 billion inflows into Bitcoin ETFs over just three days. Additionally, external factors such as the severe cold in Texas have led to a notable 34% drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to real-world events.
Further influencing the market is VanEck’s decision to delist their Bitcoin Strategy ETF, a move attributed to shifting investor interest and the fund’s performance. These developments collectively paint a complex picture for Bitcoin’s future valuation and market dynamics.
Bitcoin ETF Sees $1 Billion Inflow in Just Three Days
Recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed net inflows of approximately 21,000 bitcoins in their first three days, amounting to around $894.6 million at the current Bitcoin price of $42,600. Significant contributions came from Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with 12,112 bitcoins and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with 16,362 bitcoins.
Following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced notable outflows, losing about 25,000 bitcoins in its transition from a closed-end fund to an ETF.
[COINDESK] #Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Near $1B After Three Days
— BecauseBitcoin.com (@BecauseBitcoin) January 17, 2024
Despite Bitcoin’s price dropping by roughly 10% since the ETFs’ launch, they have generated a substantial $10 billion in trading volume in the initial three days, highlighting their impact in the broader market and sparking ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s future success.
Texas Cold Snap Causes 34% Drop in Bitcoin Hash Rate
With freezing temperatures causing a strain on Texas’s energy grid, Bitcoin’s hash rate experienced a significant 34% drop. The rate, measured in Exahashes per second (EH/s), fell from over 629 on January 11 to approximately 415 on January 15. It later recovered to 454 EH/s on January 16 as temperatures slightly increased.
Texas, accounting for about 29% of the U.S. Bitcoin hash rate, became a hub for mining companies relocating from China after the latter’s regulatory crackdown.
Frozen gas infrastructure in Texas was the main culprit in the power failures of 2021, which was blamed for some 240 deaths. After help from wind power, the grid appears to be holding this week as wind chills dipped below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. https://t.co/mJPovybKDV
— The New York Times (@nytimes) January 17, 2024
During this period of extreme cold, major mining operations like Marathon Digital temporarily halted their activities to help preserve the electrical grid’s stability. This fluctuation in the hash rate underscores the vulnerability of Bitcoin to external environmental factors.
Despite Texas’s power grid demonstrating resilience, the volatility in the hash rate poses questions about Bitcoin’s stability and its potential influence on market prices.
VanEck to Delist Bitcoin Strategy ETF Due to Performance, Investor Shifts
Less than two years since its launch, VanEck has decided to delist and liquidate its Bitcoin Strategy ETF, attributing the move to factors including investor interest and fund performance. This decision follows closely on the heels of the SEC’s recent approval for VanEck to list shares of its spot Bitcoin ETF.
The closure of the Bitcoin Strategy ETF, trading under the ticker XBTF on the Cboe BZX Exchange, was influenced by a comprehensive analysis of various elements, particularly operational efficiency and performance metrics. The fund is set to be delisted by February 6th, giving shareholders until January 30th to divest their holdings.
Now that our spot bitcoin ETF has been approved, we are closing our ETF that invested in bitcoin futures. https://t.co/pgf8NaKb4a
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) January 17, 2024
VanEck hinted that the SEC’s green light for spot Bitcoin investment vehicles played a role in their decision to phase out the futures-based ETF. While this development is expected to have an incremental impact on Bitcoin prices, it also mirrors the ongoing shifts and trends within the evolving ETF marketplace, highlighting the dynamic nature of financial investment instruments.
Next, let’s explore a forecast for Bitcoin’s price and take a closer look at its technical analysis.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
On January 18, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is exhibiting a minor decline, trading at $42,688, down by 0.11%. In the 4-hour chart, a critical pivot point is established at $43,288. Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $44,384, with further hurdles at $45,260 and $47,060. On the flip side, support is initially found at $42,374, followed by $41,469 and $40,492.
Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44, suggesting a neutral market sentiment. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $43,408, hovering near the pivotal level, indicating potential resistance.
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Chart patterns reveal that Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a tight trading range, fluctuating between $43,500 and $41,500. This pattern signifies a period of indecision among traders, as Bitcoin struggles to establish a clear directional momentum.
Conclusively, the overall trend for BTC/USD appears to be bearish below the $43,400 mark. However, should the price breach this level, the sentiment could shift. In the short term, the asset is expected to test its resistance levels, with any significant break potentially altering the current bearish outlook.
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