Dramatic showdown looms in South Korea as Yoon faces impeachment trial and possible arrest

South Korea looks set for a dramatic political showdown this week as impeachment proceedings kick off against suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol, who remains holed up in his fortified residence evading arrest for a separate criminal investigation.

The embattled leader’s short-lived declaration of martial law in December triggered widespread public outrage and protests, and plunged the country into its biggest political crisis in decades.

For weeks, Yoon has barricaded himself in his hillside compound in the capital Seoul, surrounded by his Presidential Security Service (PSS) team, while outside the gates hundreds of his die-hard conservative supporters have vowed to protect him.

Yoon has indicated through his lawyer that he will not attend the first formal hearing in his impeachment trial on Tuesday, citing safety concerns relating to efforts to detain him for questioning, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.

The former prosecutor-turned-politician was stripped of his presidential powers last month after his declaration of martial law, and is wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including allegations he led an insurrection – a crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

Yoon maintains he acted legitimately in declaring martial law and considers the warrant “illegal and invalid.” He has told his supporters that he will “fight until the end.”

Supporters are concerned Yoon will be detained if he leaves his residence to attend the impeachment hearings. Rival protesters have also braved cold conditions to call for his arrest.

Corruption investigators are determined to execute the arrest warrant against Yoon – the first time such action has been taken against a sitting president.

Tensions exploded earlier this month when investigators attempted to detain Yoon at his residence, resulting in a dramatic hours-long standoff between dozens of police and a “human wall” of around 200 soldiers and members of the presidential security detail.

The arrest attempt was later called off with investigators citing the safety of the people on the ground, though the arrest warrant was extended.

Yoon has also filed legal complaints against those who tried to arrest him including the head of the state anti-corruption agency.

Political fate in hands of top court

Yoon swiftly rescinded his late-night martial law declaration on December 3, after lawmakers pushed past security forces blocking their way into parliament and voted down the decree.

The National Assembly then voted to impeach Yoon after several members of his own ruling party turned on him. Parliament also voted to impeach the country’s prime minister and acting president Han Duck-soo. The finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, is now acting president.

The country’s Constitutional Court has the ultimate say over Yoon and Han’s political fate, and will determine whether they will be formally removed from their positions or reinstated.

Oral arguments for Yoon’s trial start Tuesday, with five sessions scheduled until February 4. If Yoon fails to appear on Tuesday, a second hearing will proceed on Thursday, with or without him in attendance.

The court has up to 180 days to decide whether to uphold or reject the impeachment vote, and vowed to make the case a “top priority.”

Complicating the court’s deliberations is that the nine-member court currently only has eight justices, due to a delay in filling vacancies left by retired justices.

Acting President Choi recently filled two out of three vacancies on the court appointed by the parliament, and the remaining position will be reviewed by the court later this month.

Under South Korea’s constitution, at least six justices must approve an impeachment for it to be upheld.

If the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, he would become the shortest-serving president in South Korea’s democratic history. The country must then hold new presidential elections within 60 days.

Criminal investigations

While Yoon has been suspended from exercising his powers, he has not been officially removed from office. That means he still has presidential immunity from most criminal charges – except for insurrection or treason.

South Korea’s police, military, and anti-corruption body have formed a joint investigation team to examine the charges of insurrection and abuse of power against Yoon. Meanwhile, prosecutors are investigating key figures involved in the martial law operation, including commanders and the defense minister.

Yoon has refused to answer three summonses in recent weeks asking for his cooperation, according to the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO.)

Meanwhile, corruption investigators appear to be pushing ahead with their second attempt to arrest the suspended president.

On Sunday, the CIO said it had asked the Defense Ministry and presidential security team for cooperation with enforcing the arrest and search warrant against Yoon.

Much of the spotlight has fallen on the presidential security team, the PSS, which has been accused of acting like Yoon’s personal bodyguards. Previously, the CIO said “it is virtually impossible to execute a warrant” at Yoon’s residence while security there remains in place.

The CIO on Sunday asked the country’s defense ministry to ensure soldiers dispatched to the security team protecting Yoon do not disrupt efforts to arrest him.

It also said the security team should avoid an “illegal act” such as mobilizing security personnel for jobs outside of their duties, and warned that disruption could result in criminal punishment.

There is also some confusion as to which agency has jurisdiction to carry out the arrest warrant. Yoon’s lawyers on Monday accused the police of being complicit in an “illegal arrest and abuse of power,” and that “any evidence obtained through such actions would be deemed illegal.”

Yoon’s lawyers argue the warrant should be executed by the CIO, not the police. South Korean law, however, states that police are authorized to assist other authorities in carrying out public duties.

On Friday, the head of Yoon’s PSS, Park Chong-jun, submitted his resignation before undergoing police questioning over his role in blocking Yoon’s arrest, according to the security team.

Once the warrant has been enforced, it starts a 48-hour countdown for investigators to hold and question Yoon. The CIO would need to apply for another warrant within that period to formally arrest him.