It’s getting worse for JD Vance

Two weeks ago, I noted that the early signs for JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee were not encouraging. He was a historically unpopular running mate. The polls seemed to confirm what was already evident: He wasn’t a particularly voter-friendly pick, dating back to an underperforming 2022 Ohio Senate campaign in which every other Republican running for statewide office did better in their races.

The signs since then have only gotten worse.

A half-dozen polls have now tested views of Vance more than once in the last few weeks. In each of them, his already-underwhelming image ratings have deteriorated — sometimes significantly.

And crucially, his struggles appear particularly pronounced among educated voters and women. That would suggest that his derisive past comments about childless women are indeed proving to be liabilities.

But first, the big picture. Vance’s net favorable rating (favorable vs. unfavorable) is now nine points underwater in the FiveThirtyEight average. That’s a marked contrast to other recent running mates, who have generally polled in popular territory.

And notably, three of the repeated polls show about as many people view Vance very unfavorably as have any kind of positive view of him.

His net favorable ratings have dropped:

Three points in Reuters-Ipsos polls between July 16 and July 28 (the end dates for the polls).
Five points in Economist-YouGov polls between July 23 and July 30.
Eight points in AP-NORC polls between July 15 and July 29.
Nine points in other YouGov polls (that weren’t sponsored by a media outlet) between July 15 and July 25.
Nine points in ABC News-Ipsos polls between July 20 and July 27.
And six points in a new NPR/PBS/Marist College poll, versus its July 22 poll.

Digging into specific groups can be problematic, because they involve smaller sample sizes with bigger margins of error. And not all polls provide such detail — at least publicly. But the story of Vance’s decline is similar across these polls.

Vance’s net favorable rating has declined among women by around 10 points in each of the Marist, Economist-YouGov and other YouGov polls.

He’s declined among independents by double digits in both the Marist and YouGov polls. (Though he ticked up slightly in the Economist-YouGov poll.)

He’s declined at least 19 points among Black voters in the Marist, YouGov and Economist-YouGov polls. And he’s also down double digits among voters under 30 in two of those three polls.

In the Marist poll — the most recent and detailed high-quality survey we have — Vance’s net image has declined by 28 points among college-educated voters and 14 points among women who are political independents.

Vance’s numbers overall and with many of these groups are now similar to Trump’s. That might make logical sense given the two are on the same ticket. But in the recent past, even running mates of unpopular nominees have generally been popular — including Mike Pence in 2020, and both Pence and Tim Kaine in 2016.

Vance isn’t getting that same benefit of the doubt. Instead, his status as a historically unpopular running mate appears to be cementing.